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热钱撤离扭断房企资金链 人民币汇率横盘

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发表于 2013-8-2 15:16:40 |显示全部楼层
近期接到许多下面企业打来的电话,说他们资金很紧张,链条断裂的危险正在临近。部分外资对冲基金已在从“看空中国”向“小幅做空”转变。
  一位亚洲系对冲基金总监近日告诉证券时报记者,受到中国央行6月“举动”的刺激,部分外资对冲基金已在从“看空中国”向“小幅做空”转变。其激增的美元头寸需求,则在一定程度上造成了人民币汇率近期的横盘徘徊。
  光大银行首席宏观分析师盛宏清就此认为,中国经济未来可能继续下探以及中国内地与美国及中国香港地区利差前景的趋弱,可能使得上半年借助信托、理财产品大肆涌入房地产市场的“热钱”撤离,并可能造成相关房企资金链的加速断裂。

  “近期接到许多下面企业打来的电话,说他们资金很紧张,链条断裂的危险正在临近。”某股份制银行信贷部门负责人表示。据他介绍,这些企业以房地产类的居多,规模普遍不大。
  实际上,境内即期市场的人民币对美元汇率已在6.1250至6.1450区间徘徊数月之久,同一时间段内的美元指数则走出了快速下跌、上涨、再下跌的“倒N字形”。结合此前美元向上时人民币亦走强的情境去猜测,或已有美元基本面之外的因素在干扰中国市场。
  一位国有大行外汇交易人士对记者说,季节性因素影响较大,政策方面的刺激也很直接。以前是供大于求,现在供需日渐平衡,并造成了人民币汇率盘整,但温和的升值压力仍存。他认为,稳增长之下的所谓“促出口”,不会对人民币汇率形成多大影响。
  今年年中,国家外汇局发布20号文要求银行机构在进行美元贷款时,必须补足相应的美元敞口。同时,每年的6、7月份都是我国在香港或海外上市公司集中分红,以及多数中外合资企业将去年留存利润汇出的时期。
  中信银行总行国际金融市场专家刘维明认为,除季节性及货币政策等因素之外,近期利率市场化的快速推进也对我国汇率市场的改革提出了要求。刘维明认为,扩大汇率波幅以及减少干预是未来的方向,人民币将以稳定为主。
  上述基金总监对记者表示,必须注意的是,国外对冲基金受到中国合格境外机构投资者(QFII)额度限制,大进大出并非想象中那么容易。实际上有许多打着对冲基金旗号的资金,其控制人是来自中国国内的人士。与真正的外资相比,他们更熟悉中国特殊国情下“钻空子”的门道。
  不过,在记者了解到的房地产企业当中,真正愿意承认资金链紧张的并不多。甚至有华东地区某家房企老板告诉记者,他们的资金链比前两年调控时还要好一些。
  对此,中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲指出,美联储量化宽松(QE)实际已在退出,目前执行的所有手段都是紧缩的,这会导致部分外资回撤。更值得注意的是我国的国内行业、产业缺乏发展方向和效率,内资的外撤也已日益严重。从这个角度来说,是自己在做空自己,房地产行业更是不容乐观。
  盛宏清认为,7月份外汇占款可能还会下滑,但单纯从对冲基金撤资去看,其单月大幅撤出也不太可能,毕竟在全球范围内中国的实体经济仍是最有潜力和投资价值的。
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  香港人民币存款9个月来首降 钱荒引发经济忧虑
  香港人民币存款9个月来首次下降,投资者担心中国大陆10年来最严重的钱荒将损害经济增长。
  香港金管局今天报告6月份人民币存款环比下降5.22亿元跌至6980亿元。这是自2012年9月首次出现月度存款下降。
  香港金管局报告上月处理的人民币交易为2710亿元,比5月份下降了15%。
  在“李克强经济学”思路指引下6月中国经历了10年来最严重的钱荒,中国央行间拆借利率创历史新高。最新公布的6月中国金融市场运行情况报告显示,上月债券市场累计发行5342亿元同比减少34.6%,环比减少43.3%。其中银行间债券市场发行债券5128亿元,同比减少33.9%,环比减少43.4%。
  中国政府5月份表示加强了对进出口商的资本流动监管,防止投机资金进入中国大陆市场牟利。
  渣打银行高级经济学家Kelvin Lau说:
  银行间流动性压力某种程度上损害了市场情绪。
  随着对中国经济增长忧虑上升对人民币升值的预期降低。跨境贸易流动变得比以往更平衡,这意味着香港人民币净增降低。
  1年期的无本金交割远期人民币可能连续第三个月下降,创下自去年5月以来最长记录,彭博调研显示预期7月中国官方制造业PMI将降至49.8。低于50荣枯线。
  渣打银行预期今年下半年香港人民币存款增长将继续放缓,因为投资者继续缩小对人民币升值的下注。(财经网)
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发表于 2013-8-10 12:45:42 |显示全部楼层

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