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美元兵败非农,商品绝地反击

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发表于 2013-8-4 12:02:20 |显示全部楼层
欧洲时段,美国7月非农报告远低于预期重挫美元,ICE美元指数快速回落至82下方,商品和非美强劲反弹收复早盘跌幅,黄金价格反弹32美元至1318,银价拉升1美元重回20美元上方,铜价进一步走高测试3.20重要阻力位。

万众瞩目的非农报告最终令投资者大失所望,7月非农新增就业人数仅为16.2万,远低于经济学家预期18.5万,前值也从19.5万向下修正至18.8万。由于前期公布的初请,ADP和ISM制造业就业指数均大幅改善,导致投资者一度认为上月非农将大幅改善,事实与预期的巨大落差打压美元一泻千里。不过日内数据并非毫无亮点,美国7月失业率从7.6%降至7.4%,创2008年12月以来新低,或部分抵消了非农就业低于预期的消极影响,此外6月个人消费支出上升0.5%,单月增幅创今年2月以来新高,6月核心个人消费支出物价指数年率维持在1.3%,符合市场预期,显示总体物价水平维持稳定。

尽管单月数据表现不佳,但就业市场并未脱离长期温和改善的轨迹。与去年同期相比,今年1月-7月非农月均新增就业人数达到19.2万,是2006年以来最高水平,2011和2012年前7个月月均新增人数仅为16.8万和18.1万。短期内投资者或对市场反应过激,虽不排除美元面临进一步回落的风险,但考虑到美国经济总体维持健康,投资者可能缺乏足够的激励做空美元,目前判断美元中期升势已经结束为时尚早,美元短期可能暂时陷入区间震荡。(陈东阳 sdychen@fxcmasia.com

金价时段内大幅反弹,重新站上1300整数关口上方,不过鉴于金价已经下破6月底以来上行趋势线,中短期走势或转为向下,上方强劲阻力关注7月高点1346美元,只有上破该位置才有望再度打开上行空间。
银价时段内一度大幅反弹,不过目前仍受阻于上升通道下轨和4月以来下行趋势线,只有上破才能打开反弹空间,否则后市更倾向于下行。
铜价连续三个交易日大幅上涨,目前多头正在测试2月以来下行趋势线,上破则可能进一步涨至3.240(100日均线),持续受阻则可能再度回落至前期底部。


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发表于 2013-8-5 06:18:34 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2013-8-11 23:17:13 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2013-8-12 14:29:17 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2013-8-20 17:36:13 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-8-24 13:53:05 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2013-9-3 22:34:12 |显示全部楼层
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